Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming

Abstract Tropical cyclones range among the costliest of all meteorological events worldwide and planetary scale warming provides more energy moisture to these storms. Modelling national global economic repercussions 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, we find a qualitative change in response an increasingly warmer world. While United States were able balance regional production failures by original 2017 hurricane, this option becomes less viable under future warming. In our simulations over 7000 sectors with than 1.8 million supply chain connections, US are not offset losses use efforts intensifying hurricanes unabated At certain level other countries have step necessary goods for production, which gives competitive disadvantage. highly localized mining quarrying sector—which here also comprises oil gas industry—this disadvantage emerges already Harvey intensifies Eventually, regions reach their limit what they can offset. chose example specific hurricane impacting region, mechanism is likely applicable climate-related sectors. It thus that best adapted climate gain significant advantage competitors